Europe Should De-Escalate with Russia to Avoid Raising the Possibility of Third World War

The war between Russia on one side and Ukraine helped by Europe on the other side even earlier held the dangers of being the flash point of a wider war (possibly the Third World War) and a nuclear war. However in May 2026 a number of events and factors have led to the further increase of this danger. To convey an idea of the extent of this danger, we may say that while earlier this danger of a wider war and a nuclear war starting from this flash-point was about 10 per cent, now in this month of May 2026 and at the moment of writing this on May 27, this appears to have doubled and increased to about 20%. So the situation has deteriorated sharply but still it is very much within the realm of being rescued and taken back to a more ‘normal’ situation.

It is the most basic precept of creating a safe world in present-day conditions that any escalation or provocation that even moderately increases the possibilities of a nuclear war or the Third War should be definitely avoided.

More particularly, brinkmanshipBrinkmanshipThe practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. is a word that should be entirely avoided and in fact not even considered in a situation where the possibilities of a much wider war involving nuclear weapon countries are involved.

These most basic principles of world safety and European safety should be uppermost in the minds of top European leaders now as they confront a dangerous situation.

Europe has some of the greatest scholars of the world and some of the most educated populations and so on this basis many people would presume that Europe and its top leaders would take the most rational decision today.

However on two past occasions in the previous century when Europe’s leadership in education and scholarship was even more established at world level, Europe’s ruling elites were called upon to take rational decisions to de-escalate galloping dangerous situations. On both occasions they failed to take rational decisions in favor of safety and peace. The result—two world wars which devastated not just Europe but a much bigger part of world and killed millions.

Now again Europe’s ruling elites are faced with a crisis situation in which failure on their part to take rational decisions can start a much bigger and wider war which can also be a nuclear war. The stakes are much higher now than on the earlier occasions as much more dangerous weapons, nuclear weapons and thermonuclear weapons are available which can destroy the most prosperous cities in a matter of minutes, not hours, inflicting unimaginably painful death on millions.

The present crisis has arisen due to the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war. The character of this as a proxy war of the west is well-established, with Ukraine being used as a proxy to weaken Russia. Towards this end, all sorts of weapons as well as financial help were made available to Ukraine by the USA and leading European countries. Initially limits were placed on this but limits were increasingly withdrawn so that Ukraine could get increasing support in the form of weapons and intelligence to attack the Russian mainland too. This brought the west into more direct conflict with Russia and hence raised the possibilities of a wider war involving the biggest nuclear weapon countries.

However under Trump’s presidency, the direct confrontation of the USA with Russia was scaled back and USA support for Ukraine declined. This is the position today. However instead of assisting Trump’s attempts for defusing the worst of the crisis and if possible get a peace deal, the European leaders chose instead to further increase their military and intelligence support to Ukraine.

In the latest situation there were a series of highly provocative attacks on Russia by Ukraine helped by European powers, including some on energy installations and on a Russian dormitory which killed 18 students. Earlier there was a most dangerous attack on a part of the Russian nuclear triadNuclear TriadA three-pronged military force structure consisting of land-launched nuclear missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines, and strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs. helped by western intelligence and western support for a Ukrainian counter-invasion of Russia. In addition there have been drone attacks on Russia using Baltic (European) air space.

This has led to increasing pressures in Russia to substantially step up its attacks on Ukraine, resulting in a much heavier attack on Kyiv. This came along with warnings from Russia to foreigners and diplomats to leave Kyiv as more such attacks were likely. Europe has responded to this with anger.

Hence a stage has been reached where further escalation appears likely even though this is likely to be extremely dangerous. It hardly needs to be stated that already a very dangerous situation existed in terms of leading European countries being involved in proxy warfareProxy WarfareAn armed conflict between two states or non-state actors which act on the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities. and hybrid warfareHybrid WarfareA military strategy which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods. with Russia for a considerable time, and now more red-lines are being crossed in terms of moving closer to direct confrontation. Both sides have nuclear weapons. When existential crisis exists for any nuclear weapon country, then nuclear weapons are likely to be used. Or these may even be used when the patience of such a country runs out due to being provoked on all sides and subjected relentlessly to what it considers to be highly unfair and manipulated criticism.

In terms of grievances both sides have their own stories to tell. Europe may concentrate its story on the Russian invasion which started in 2022. Russia instead will like to talk more about the violation of the commitment made by NATO in or around 1990 against any eastward expansion, the west-instigated coup of 2014 in Ukraine which set Ukraine firmly on path of hostility to not just Russia but even its own Russian speaking citizens, the subsequent atrocities against Russian speaking citizens in Eastern Ukraine, the sabotage of the Minsk accordsMinsk AccordsA series of international agreements which sought to end the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine, signed in 2014 and 2015., the sabotage of Nord Stream pipelinesNord Stream PipelinesA pair of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, heavily damaged by explosions in 2022., the sabotage of the early peace efforts in 2022 soon after the invasion started.

Both sides have their stories to tell, but what is of the most immediate concern just now is to de-escalate the increasing tensions and hostilities. The entire world should hope and pray for de-escalation and to help in this, as at present this is the single most important flash point that can start the third world war and a nuclear war. Leading spiritual leaders including Pope Leo, who feels very strongly for world peace, should also issue statements favoring de-escalation and peace. The United Nations should initiate completely unbiased, non-partisan efforts for de-escalation and peace.