Millions of Lives at Stake as Conflicts Continue to Widen in Africa Amid Humanitarian and Health Crises

At the start of the year 2026, there was already a very serious humanitarian crisis in Africa. Look at any listing of the countries most affected by humanitarian crises, and you will find that the countries of Africa have an exceptionally high representation.

It is increasingly clear that droughts and other disasters in times of climate change, as well as distorted development patterns prevalent today (but with their roots in colonial and neo-colonial policiesNeo-colonialismThe use of economic, political, cultural, or other pressures to control or influence other countries, especially former dependencies.), are a chronic cause of this humanitarian crisis. However, very violent conflicts and wars have emerged as the most important factor in the extreme distress suffered by people. This is clearly avoidable, but the tragic reality is that in the absence of strong, well-thought-out, and continuing peace processes, the distress caused by conflicts, civil wars, and wars has been steadily increasing.

Describing the situation in Sudan at the beginning of 2026, a statement by the WHO dated 9 January 2026 (titled ‘Sudan: 1000 days of war deepen the world’s worst health and humanitarian crisis’) said that 20 million people need health assistance and 20 million people desperately need food. On the whole, 33.4 million people of Sudan would need humanitarian assistance in 2026 (out of a total population of about 53 million), this note said. 13.6 million persons had been displaced by the Sudan civil war at this time. This note also said that health facilities had suffered extensive damage in the course of the civil war.

Now, in the first 150 days of this year 2026, conflicts and wars, particularly civil wars, have worsened further, and the humanitarian and health crises have also worsened in several countries on this continent.

In addition, several reports have noted the significant shortfall in humanitarian assistance, as well as the increasing difficulties in delivering aid to remote places affected by humanitarian crises, including the increasing threats faced by aid workers and staff themselves.

Now, with the outbreak of EbolaEbola Virus Disease (EVD)A severe, often fatal illness in humans caused by the Ebola virus, primarily occurring in the African continent., apart from the direct harm caused by this disease, many restrictions are being imposed, which will have an adverse impact on the ability to deliver aid to many areas experiencing a humanitarian crisis.

Some of the initial estimates of people needing humanitarian assistance in Africa this year were on the lower side because, due to the availability of lower budgets, the UN and some other agencies had to lower the targets of people they could possibly reach. Keeping this in view and the worsening situation since then, my mid-year estimate is that about 200 million people in Africa urgently need humanitarian assistance out of a total population of about 1,600 million (1.6 billion); in other words, one out of eight persons in Africa needs humanitarian assistance. As humanitarian assistance is falling far short of what is needed, millions of lives may be lost if urgent remedial steps on a large scale are not initiated without further delay. If, due to the absence on a significant scale of urgently needed assistance, 5% of the people affected by the humanitarian crisis (200 million) in Africa die, this means a loss of 10 million lives. Let me be clear that here we are not talking about the difference between the normal death rate in Africa and the mortality rate in humanitarian crisis zones. We are talking here, instead, of the difference between a situation of humanitarian crisis which has a reasonably effective response and a situation of humanitarian crisis in which the response falls far short of the needs. At present, the situation is characterized widely by the response falling far short.

While this situation is very worrying in itself, what I find even more worrying is that the various conflict situations are leading to a wider alignment of various countries and forces on a large part of the continent on opposite sides. Thus, for various reasons, Sudan’s widely recognized government and armed forces (SAFSAF (Sudanese Armed Forces)The military forces of the Republic of the Sudan.), Eritrea, Somalia, Egypt, a part of the Tigray rebelsTigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)An armed nationalist paramilitary group and political party in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia., the western and widely recognized faction of Libyan rulers, and one faction of South Sudan appear to be on one side, while the RSFRSF (Rapid Support Forces)A paramilitary force in Sudan, largely formed from the Janjaweed militias, currently in armed conflict with the SAF. paramilitary faction of Sudan, Ethiopia, SomalilandSomalilandAn unrecognized de facto sovereign state in the Horn of Africa, internationally considered part of Somalia., the Eastern Libyan faction (Khalifa HaftarKhalifa HaftarA Libyan-American military officer and the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA).), and one faction of South Sudan appear to be on the other side. Then, in a different context, the DRC and Burundi appear to be strongly on one side, while Rwanda and M23 rebelsM23 RebelsThe March 23 Movement, a rebel military group based in eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. appear to be on the other side, with the role of Uganda being more complex and double-edged. Across the Red Sea, in West Asia and its proximity, Saudi Arabia and Turkey appear to be closer to the former alignment (although they may also seek greater glory in some peace and reconciliation efforts) while the UAE appears to be closer to the latter alignment, particularly to the RSF and Ethiopia. Israel appears to be close particularly to South Sudan, Somaliland, Ethiopia, and the DRC, as well as to the Eastern Libya faction. In fact, Israel may even seek the resettlement of many Palestinians in parts of Africa, probably in Somaliland and South Sudan.

In addition, the great powers—the USA, China, and Russia, as well as France and some other former colonial powers—are following their own agenda, motivated by the control of mineral wealth as well as geo-strategic considerations, which they often present as aid and peace efforts. The role of France has eroded in the SahelThe SahelThe ecoclimatic and biogeographic realm of transition in Africa between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. in the course of coups and recent changes, but it is seeking other pastures.

Many terror groups are active in Africa and can play big and destructive roles, particularly when they get weapons from some foreign power.

Many mercenary elements, smugglers, and criminal gangs are active in Africa. This includes criminals involved in gold and diamond mining and smuggling, with links to many mainstream end points.

There is an increasing danger that all this can lead to a worsening cycle of violence, conflict, civil wars, and ultimately a wider war in which many countries may get involved, supported by foreign countries with finance and weapons for their own selfish, short-sighted reasons.

This gives rise to frightening memories of the Second Congo War (1998-2003), which has also been called the Great African War or even the African World War, as nine countries and about 25 armed groups were sucked into this war. The International Rescue CommitteeInternational Rescue Committee (IRC)A global humanitarian aid, relief, and development nongovernmental organization., in a peer-reviewed study carried out with the Burnet Institute, Australia, estimated that including the direct war victims as well as those who perished in the indirect impacts of hunger and disease, nearly 5.4 million died as a result of this war over a period of the five years of the war plus five years of the lingering impact of this war (1998-2008).

This should never happen again.

However, the way in which several conflicts and hostilities in Africa are worsening and getting entangled with each other, as well as the large-scale violence and terror of several armed groups, indicate that unless peace-making efforts are strengthened very significantly, Africa may drift towards another great war.

• The Sudan civil war can become the center of a wider war. Already several neighboring countries within and outside Africa are on different sides of this civil war. The paramilitary force RSF is reported to get significant support from the UAE. It is reported to have the support of the eastern Libyan faction as well. The recognized government of Sudan has also accused Ethiopia of helping the RSF and of being involved in recent drone attacks. The Sudan government has also accused Chad of helping the RSF, but Chad has replied that its role is of neutrality in the conflict. The Sudan civil war is already responsible for the highest number of displaced people—around 14 million—caused by any ongoing war or conflict. In more recent times, the Sudan civil war has shown signs of becoming increasingly more entangled with the re-emergence of a civil war in the neighboring country of South Sudan.
• At the same time, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which was at the center of the previous African Great War, has retained high levels of tensions, particularly in its eastern parts, which are partly a legacy of the earlier big war and the preceding genocide in Rwanda. As a part of the wider conflict in eastern DRC, three countries (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi) and over a dozen armed groups are more closely involved, but there are possibilities of involvement of others too. So this remains another hot spot for the possibility of widening conflicts.
• Ethiopia’s tensions with Eritrea are increasing. Ethiopia wants access to the sea in the form of coastal land or a port (such as Eritrea’s Assab port), as it lost sea access after the emergence of Eritrea as a separate country. TigrayTigray RegionThe northernmost regional state in Ethiopia, the site of a devastating conflict from 2020 to 2022. and some other areas also remain flash points. Ethiopia’s quest for a naval base and port also took it to Somaliland where it agreed to recognize this seceding territory in return for such facilities on leased land. However, this led to hostility with Somalia, which never recognized or accepted the secession of Somaliland. Despite attempts to cool down hostilities, the tensions persist. Both Somalia and Eritrea may seek the friendship of those opposed to Ethiopia in other contexts. Meanwhile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DamGrand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)A major gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, which has been a source of regional tension regarding water rights downstream. has led to increasing tensions of Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan. Egypt in particular is angry with the resulting perceived higher possibility of water scarcity and floods in different times in downstream areas.
• The strong position of armed militias and terrorist groups in the Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali) as well as in Nigeria, Somalia, and elsewhere has kept tensions high in a vast area.
• Libya’s factional violence disrupts its own stability and also worsens the problems of neighbors.
• Earlier foreign intervention on various sides was seen more in terms of the bigger world powers like the USA, Russia, China, France, and other leading European countries. This continues, but now sometimes the closer-located countries just across the Red Sea in West Asia appear to be having an even bigger and more harmful impact, and this can worsen as West Asian powers work out their own rivalries on opposite sides of various emerging hostile alignments of Africa. So if Egypt and Saudi Arabia are likely to be helpful for one side of the civil war of Sudan, the UAE can be on the other side. In fact, the role of the UAE in helping the RSF with weapons and prolonging the civil war has come in for considerable criticism. Turkey and Israel have their own ambitions and designs in Africa.
• The grab of various local forces and militias for the legal or illegal exploitation of minerals including gold, diamonds, oil, cobalt, copper, etc., abetted by the greed of foreign powers for getting a larger share of these resources, often in highly unethical ways, continues to play a big role in increasing conflicts and violence, just as happened during the great war of 1998-2003.
• Centuries of colonial and neo-colonial exploitation have led to the breakdown of traditional protective and fraternal systems at several levels, such as the co-existence of farmers and pastoral groups, while artificial boundary lines imposed by colonial powers (as well as by secessionist movements driven by imperial interests) have increased possibilities of conflicts.

All these factors together have led to a very difficult situation in which a bigger war, a greater war involving many countries, can emerge. Hence, forces of peace must be on alert and in action to prevent the horrible possibility of a greater war emerging, similar to or worse than the 1998-2003 big war. On the one hand, the ongoing wars and conflicts should end as early as possible. On the other hand, various peace initiatives need to be taken to minimize the possibilities of the emergence of new wars and conflicts.

The most important issue is the increasing number of persons getting exposed to extreme distress as well as life-threatening conditions in the hot spots of serious humanitarian crises in Africa.

As stated earlier, millions of lives are threatened in the coming months in the most vulnerable areas. Hence, while the Iran and Ukraine crises are obviously very important, the world and the international community should find the time and the resources to protect about 200 million persons in Africa from extremely distressing conditions and thereby also save the lives of millions of people, including children.