Four questions the world is too scared to ask, but cannot avoid

As the Ukraine-Russia war continues relentlessly, creating extreme distress and stress, there are many frightening possibilities of escalation and widening of war that need to be clearly considered by all those who value peace and safety.

Before we come to these frightening possibilities, however, let me state at the outset that this was a completely avoidable war and there is no reason why Ukraine and Russia could not have lived forever in a durable relationship of friendship and peace, with Ukraine remaining neutral in its relations with Russia and the west, benefiting from both sides.

However, this was not to be, as some powerful forces wanted a proxy war. So here we are now in a war that has already lasted longer than the First World War, claimed a million lives, and displaced about 10 million people externally and internally. This war has been extremely tragic and was completely avoidable, or else could have stopped in four weeks instead of continuing for four years, but perhaps an even bigger question now is whether this can escalate into an even much bigger tragedy.

Here we pose this question in the form of four sub-questions.

The drone and other air attacks have been getting more and more dangerous and there is also the added danger that when there are so frequent attacks, sometimes these can hit very sensitive targets, even unintended or untargeted ones, leading to eruption of sudden crisis. In the case of the attacks on Russia, it is widely recognized that the attacks are facilitated in several ways—help relating to technology, intelligence, expertise, financial help, supplies, etc.—by leading western countries. At one stage, such help was coming more from the USA, and at another stage, it was coming more from leading European countries. In more recent times, times the role of some European countries has been more discussed, together with some unhelpful and aggressive statements from some of their prominent leaders. Unlike in Cold War years years, some serious concerns and red lines of Russia are not getting due attention. This has led to increasing discussion in Russia that there is a wider war or war effort against Russia, and so, at some stage Russia must unleash an attack on at least one European country (or two) that appears to have been the most involved in helping Ukraine’s drone, missile, or other attacks on Russia. Initially, it is likely to be a conventional weapon attack, but a strong one. So our question is: Is such an attack likely, and if so, when and at what stage? I think such an attack becomes more likely when Russia faces a more adverse situation, when its feelings of an existential crisis become stronger, or when an extremely sensitive target gets hit (which may even be unintended, who knows). In such a situation, it is increasingly likely that Russia will launch a strong conventional weapon attackConventional WeaponsWeapons that are not weapons of mass destruction (e.g., nuclear, biological, chemical). They include firearms, artillery, tanks, aircraft, and ships. on one or two European adversaries that are identified as having troubled Russia the most.

Our second question is: What happens after this first attack by Russia? It is certain that the country or countries hit will be NATO members, and this would be the first time Russia would be attacking a NATO member country (if this happens). There has been nothing like this before. So anything can happen. However, given the catastrophic consequences of an all-out war, it is quite likely that efforts for de-escalation will be initiated soon. President Trump may see this as his ultimate Nobel Peace PrizeNobel Peace PrizeOne of the five Nobel Prizes established by the will of Alfred Nobel, awarded to the person who ‘shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses’. opportunity and intervene. So, I think that some de-escalation efforts will certainly be made and recourse to all-out war will be avoided. On the other hand, it is likely that while NATO may not declare war, the country that has been hit may give at least a proportionate response by attacking Russia, with or without the help of an ally.

Our third question is: What happens when Russia is also hit by the country or countries it attacked? If its first attack has not succeeded in its aim, merely led to almost equal exchange of conventional weapons, it is possible that at this stage Russia may respond with a bigger attack or even a nuclear weapon attackNuclear WeaponsExplosive devices that derive their destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (atomic bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion (thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb).. This is something that sounds unbelievable to many people, but it is a possibility that has been increasingly discussed in recent times, and more people should know this.

Our fourth question is: What can happen after this? It is too frightful to imagine. A Russia vs. NATO nuclear war can destroy the entire world through its direct and indirect impacts. However, it is also possible that saner counsel emerges just before we reach a stage of all-out destruction and an all-out nuclear war and a world war are avoided. On the other hand, it is also a possibility that World War 3 and a nuclear war actually break out, and even if this war remains confined to a few countries and ends in a very few days, its indirect impacts could destroy life in a very large part of the world. I think that if the possibility of this ever happening was considered to be only 5% a few years back, in recent times, judging from very stupid and dangerous statements and actions of some top leaders of our deeply troubled and misguided world, the possibility of this happening has already increased to about 15% or so. Such a high probability for mass destruction is unacceptable, and all forces of peace, restraint, and safety must make maximum efforts now to ensure that such possibilities of all-out destruction cease to exist, starting with a very early end to the Ukraine-Russia war on a note of durable peace. This writer has repeatedly presented a framework for achieving such peace: immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of instigators, followed by negotiations later in conditions of goodwill to resolve all contentious issues.