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Latest (2026) Global Peace Index says Geopolitical Risks Now Exceed those of the Cold War Years
The world is becoming a more dangerous place with increasing conflicts and wars, raising concerns about the erosion of meaningful human foresight in lethal decision-making.
Key Takeaways
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Due to its data cut-off date, the latest issue of the Global Peace Index (2026) has been able to only very partially capture the impact of the Iran War and its related aggressions and risks. (2026) has been able to only very partially capture the impact of the Iran War and its related aggressions and risks. Even so, this index, prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace, presents clear evidence that the world is becoming a more and more dangerous place with increasing conflicts and wars., has presented clear evidence that the world is becoming a more and more dangerous place with increasing conflicts and wars. This report clearly states that geopolitical risks now exceed Cold War levels.
Although not all aspects of the report can be fully appreciated due to its Western bias and limited framework, which cannot capture all important aspects of peace and war, some of the facts and statistics highlighted are certainly very important and relevant. More specifically, this report indicates that there are now more active state-based conflicts than at any other point since the end of the Second World War. than at any other point since the end of the Second World War. In 2008, the number of countries involved in at least one external conflict during the last five years was 59; in the latest Global Peace Index of 2026, this number has been counted at 103. According to this index, global peacefulness has declined for 12 consecutive years. In 2025, there were 117 million forcibly displaced people. The share of state based conflicts ending in peace agreements was 23% in the 1970s; this had reduced to 4% in the 2010s.
Pointing to the risks of widening wars, this report states: “With wars becoming more internationalized and harder to end, the risk of conflicts spreading and forming conflict clusters is increasing.”
The economic impact of violence on the global economy was calculated in this report at US $21.8 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity, or about 11% of global GDP, or US $2,657 per person., or about 11% of global GDP, or US $ 2657 per person.
Expenditure on peacebuilding and peacekeeping was found to be US $49 billion, or just 0.5% of world-level military expenditure in terms of purchasing power parity.
Economic Impact of Violence vs. Peace Spending
Economic Impact of Violence (PPP)
US $21.8 Trillion
~11% of Global GDP (Article’s Claim)
Peacebuilding & Peacekeeping Expenditure
US $49 Billion
0.5% of Military Expenditure (Article’s Claim)
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As many as 565 armed groups were involved in at least one drone attack between 2018 and 2025. Recorded drone strikes increased 115-fold between 2018 and 2025.
Expressing serious concern regarding the military use of AI, this report states: “Target-to-fire times using AI have fallen from around one day with cruise missiles in the 1990s to as little as 5 seconds with autonomous selection systems used in Ukraine and Iran.” The increasing use of AI in warfare is raising concerns about the erosion of meaningful human oversight in lethal decision-making. For example, algorithmic targeting in Gaza compressed the human review of AI-generated targets to roughly 20 seconds per strike, with one Israeli Defense Force system flagging 37,000 Palestinians as suspected militants, despite a 10% known error rate and many strikes resulting in heavy civilian casualties.” in Gaza compressed the human review of AI generated targets to roughly 20 seconds per strike, with one Israeli Defense Force system flagging 37,000 Palestinians as suspected militants, despite a 10% known error rate and many strikes resulting in heavy civilian casualties.”
Clearly, these are highly worrying facts, and the Peace Index has done well to draw attention to them. Nevertheless, the reality of wars and violence in our deeply troubled world cannot be fully understood with this global index as a base document, as this report reflects a strong Western bias. This is evident from the Index rankings, in which several countries that, while maintaining their distance from actually fighting wars, have played an instigation role (inciting proxy wars, providing weapons, or acting as junior partners of more aggressive powers) have been given very high rankings, while those countries that have been highly unjust victims of the aggression of others, such as Cuba or Iraq, have been given very low ranks. Former colonial powers that inflicted the most violence at a world level, or else benefited from colonialism and neo-colonialism with all its inherent violence, are at the higher levels of this index. What the world needs is not just peace, but peace based on justice, because only justice-based peace is sustainable in the longer term. A truly useful guide to the world’s peace situation and peace prospects would be one in which the true positions regarding who is most responsible for violence and wars are exposed.
Disclaimer:The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Rift.
